WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
-> Fed left policy rates
unchanged
-> Markets read the FOMC as
hawkish, 10 bps of cuts removed for 2025
-> Post US close, Microsoft (+8%) &
Meta (+10%) reported solid earnings beats
-> SPX -0.12%, Nasdaq +0.15%
-> UST 10y yield increased 5
bps to 4.37%
-> Dollar Index +0.90% to
99.78
-> Brent Oil +1.4% to $73.49
-> July ADP numbers as well as
Q2 GDP print topped consensus estimates
FED DECISION
- As
expected, the Fed left policy rates unchanged,
- Also
as expected, Governors Bowman & Waller dissented,
- No
change to FOMC statement’s forward guidance,
- Chair
Powell in press conf: “In coming months we will receive a good amount of
data that will help inform our assessment…”,
- When
asked further about this - he said that there are two jobs reports &
two inflation reports between now & the next meeting & those would
go a long way toward determining the Sept outcome,
- Markets
heard the above as hawkish, as perhaps it was anticipating Powell to open
the door wider to a cut,
- The
two dissents from Bowman & Waller represent the first time since 1993
that two Governors dissented,
- In
the press conference, one of Powell’s main messages was that the labor
market is at full employment, while inflation remains above two percent,
and so moderately restrictive policy remains appropriate,
- On
the labor market, Powell noted that it has stayed stable even as labor
demand & labor supply have slowed “in tandem”,
- On
tariff pass-through, Powell said it is “still quite early days” & that
the “process will probably be slower than expected at the beginning. But
we never expected it to be fast”
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