Indian Market News: Updates From FEDERAL RESERVE BRANCH BANK - FED Decision

 WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

-> Fed left policy rates unchanged

-> Markets read the FOMC as hawkish, 10 bps of cuts removed for 2025

 -> Post US close, Microsoft (+8%) & Meta (+10%) reported solid earnings beats

-> SPX -0.12%, Nasdaq +0.15%

-> UST 10y yield increased 5 bps to 4.37%

-> Dollar Index +0.90% to 99.78

-> Brent Oil +1.4% to $73.49

-> July ADP numbers as well as Q2 GDP print topped consensus estimates


FED DECISION



  1. As expected, the Fed left policy rates unchanged,
  1. Also as expected, Governors Bowman & Waller dissented,
  1. No change to FOMC statement’s forward guidance,
  1. Chair Powell in press conf: “In coming months we will receive a good amount of data that will help inform our assessment…”,
  1. When asked further about this - he said that there are two jobs reports & two inflation reports between now & the next meeting & those would go a long way toward determining the Sept outcome,
  1. Markets heard the above as hawkish, as perhaps it was anticipating Powell to open the door wider to a cut,
  1. The two dissents from Bowman & Waller represent the first time since 1993 that two Governors dissented,
  1. In the press conference, one of Powell’s main messages was that the labor market is at full employment, while inflation remains above two percent, and so moderately restrictive policy remains appropriate,
  1. On the labor market, Powell noted that it has stayed stable even as labor demand & labor supply have slowed “in tandem”,
  1. On tariff pass-through, Powell said it is “still quite early days” & that the “process will probably be slower than expected at the beginning. But we never expected it to be fast”

 

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