POSITIVE STOKES FOR THE MONTH:
City Union Bank: Growth visibility improving (expecting 14%YoY growth in advances) as management initiatives gain traction
Embassy Reit: Management increased FY25 leasing guidance to 6 msf. Demand from GCCs and co-working sectors to drive a strong Q3
JSW Steel: To benefit significantly from a) regulation on cascading and compounding royalties, b) tariffs on flat products, c) possible caps on regulatory taxes, and d) operating leverage and volume growth
L&T: Healthy order inflows over the next few months - strong prospect pipeline for H2 and expected improvement in domestic ordering activity
M&M: Strong momentum in autos to sustain, driving upgrades in Auto business EBIT margins. Strong monsoon, higher acreage, and water reservoir levels to drive upgrades in tractor biz operational performance
NTPC: Expect strong commissioning in Q4FY25, adding ~5GW of capacity to its operational portfolio (2GW - RES & 3GW thermal
PNB Housing: Strong Q3 loan growth (16% YoY loan/30% disbursement growth), improving AQ trends and PE selling overhang to be over in Q4
SUGAR STOCKS (+VE)
INCRED-NITIN AWASTHI
Ethanol~90% ethanol allocated for ESY26
We reiterate our bullish stance on grain-based ethanol backed by strong order inflow from oil marketing companies (OMCs)
Closely monitoring the ground & cropping patterns, we are satisfied with the movement towards the thesis we had laid earlier on the abundance of maize
Industry’s 20% ethanol blending target is on the horizon in Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 26F, with grain-based ethanol to hog ~65% share
NEGATIVE STOKES FOR THE MONTH:
Asian Paints: Q3 demand for paints remains muted, pointing to low single digit volume growth and a YoY revenue decline due to negative mix
HCL Tech: Lack of earnings catalysts coupled with high valuation to weigh on stock performance
Ramco Cements: TRCL’s incremental growth/RoCE remain challenged given issues around limestone availability/expiries
Tata Steel: Staring at potential B/S expansion, with cash flow demands from UK/Netherlands units posing risks to trading multiples
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